The Earth Can’t Afford Another 1.8 Billion Humans

And how we can make that not happen.

But the Raven still beguiling all my fancy into smiling, Straight I wheeled a cushioned seat in front of bird, and bust and door; Then upon the velvet sinking, I betook myself to linking Fancy unto fancy, thinking what this ominous bird of yore- What this grim, ungainly, ghastly, gaunt, and ominous bird of yore meant in croaking “Nevermore” — Edgar Alan Poe

THIRTY YEARS from now, the world’s population will have grown to 9.7 billion people, up from today’s 7.9 billion souls.

That astonishing 23% increase will force a corresponding rise in demand for food, energy, housing, transportation, communications, security, recreation, and much more. (Some believe the world economy will more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth. But that insane level of mass consumerism is a topic for another post.)

If you’re concerned about civilization’s devastation of other life, pollution of land, water, and sea, and the drawdown of nature’s resources today, imagine how more severe these problems may be in 2050. We’d need to shrink our global ecological footprint by 23% just to stay were we’re at today, and that’s assuming we somehow wonderfully stabilized per capita consumption with an eye toward a steady-state economy.

Rather than accept as inevitable nearly two billion more of us in 2050, how about working to keep our numbers at approximately where they are now? That would give us a fighting chance to do what is right for the Earth and ultimately for ourselves. We’re not bacteria growing mindlessly in degrading culture. We can take charge.

To get the global population to today’s level in 2050, we’d reduce our growth rate from 1.03% (currently) to 0.0% averaged over those 30 years. That would mean lowering world fertility initially from 2.4 children per woman (currently) to 2.1 (replacement) and then to 1.8 or less in order to average out to replacement over the three decades. At that point, society would hopefully embrace a goal of true ecological sustainability before 2100, by getting our numbers down to a level that allows Earth’s diversity of life to not only survive but also flourish.

That welcomed demographic shift could happen with greatly accelerated access for women to education and employment, expanded availability of contraceptives, strong emphasis on smaller family sizes, vigorous promotion of child-free lifestyles, and an overall worldwide push for smart family planning. 

Is it possible to envision such a world? Well, consider this: Japan’s growth rate is currently -0.24% with a corresponding fertility of 1.4. This is a good thing — Japan is “the world leader in demographic change”

Instead of applauding population de-growth, as is occurring in Japan and a good number of other countries, economic pundits and business leaders raise fears that there won’t be enough young workers to support an aging society, and that there’ll be too few consumers. For them, that signals social and economic gloom and doom.  

Well, for one thing, we’ll need to learn to accommodate de-growth sooner or later. The world population cannot and will not grow forever. It is currently expected to peak by around 2100, at somewhere between 9-11 billion people. Then what?

Why not take the bull by the horns and end population growth much sooner — to lessen our blows to the natural world as we manage (hopefully) to equitably get economic growth under control?

With good governance, a shifting age-structure can reap a “longevity dividend.” Japan and Singapore help people, as they age, gain and save money that can be used for health, learning, and innovation in later life. Robotics and artificial intelligence can assist society in supporting a thriving older population. If we can bring forth new technologies to shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources in a hurry, surely we can innovate likewise to help achieve a graceful and just demographic transition.

“Build back better” would become “building forward together,” with de-emphasis of growth and consumerism, and far more emphasis on enhancing the quality and value of life.

Decades ago we did not heed the wise advice of people who pushed for a stable population. “Nevermore” should we as a society not do so. We simply can’t wait any longer for a mythical Raven to perch upon a Goddess of Wisdom to compel us.