Big Trouble for the Living World in 5 Graphs

And why the Pollyannas are not helpful.

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Earth at night, Asia. NASA image.

1. ECONOMIC GROWTH — At a growth rate of 2.5% per year, the global economy will double by 2050 (see graph, which roughly corresponds with forecasts by the World Bank and others.)

Growth in the world’s Gross Domestic Product ($ trillion) through 2050. Graph from Capital Economics Long Run Economic Outlook.

Pollyannas: No problem. We can double the global economy, save nature, and prevent the worst of climate change through technology, improvements in efficiency, and better environmental policies.

Scale Down Realists: There is no way the world economy can double without further degrading the biosphere. You have to ignore history to believe that it can. Technology, efficiency improvements, and better environmental policies have been talked about and, in some cases, implemented for well over a half century yet the natural world continues its downward spiral. Sure, to some extent we can mitigate the loss of life through various means, but there’s no end to it in sight unless we decelerate growth well before 2050.

2. POPULATION — A global population of 9.7 billion humans by 2050 is expected, up by 1.6 billion from today. The population will likely stabilize but not before 2080.

UN population growth scenarios through 2050 and beyond.

Pollyannas: Global fertility is declining and this will result in only about 10.4 billion people as population growth eventually ends. The world can easily support that number of people through agricultural reforms, reduced food waste, dietary changes, and the like.

Scale Down Realists: To equitably support 10 billion people, you’re betting on broad-spectrum changes in human behavior unmatched in industrial civilization’s history. Moreover, where’s the evidence that the global environment will benefit from an even larger human population? The living world can’t afford more competition from an additional 2+ billion of us. We need to lower fertility to the replacement level by 2040 to ensure a population peak below 9 billion. This can be done by further empowering women, by promoting family planning, by increasing the availability of contraceptives, and through education on the advantages of small family size.

3. ENERGY CONSUMPTION — By 2050, global energy use is expected to increase by about 50%, mainly because of increased burning of fossil fuels in less affluent countries.

EIA graph showing projected global energy consumption through 2050. The OECD includes nearly 38 countries with collaborating market-based economies that promote economic growth. Members are among the most affluent countries of the world, and represent about 17% of the world’s population.

Pollyannas: We can supply the raw materials and vast infrastructure for solar, wind, and nuclear power to accommodate a 50% increase in global energy consumption.

Scale Down Realists: And, in doing so, further transform the world’s land and seas in ways harmful to most of the living world.

4. CARBON EMISSIONS — To avoid the worst consequences of climate change, carbon emissions must be largely eliminated, leaving zero excess CO2 in the atmosphere by 2050. However, projections indicate that global carbon emissions will remain far above zero through 2050 (see graph). Some anticipate an actual rise in emissions through 2050, while others say that, in a near perfect world, it is possible to fully replace fossil fuels with renewable energy before then.

Projected CO2 emissions through 2050. Source: EIA

Pollyannas: Don’t worry, the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy can be made while increasing global energy consumption. We will “decouple" carbon emissions from economic growth in time to avoid a global climate disaster.

Scale Down Realists: You’re willing to gamble the world’s wellbeing on a decoupling theory? However probable or improbable the theory may be, the rush toward 100% renewable energy means re-industrialization with major impacts on ecosystems and people. Burdened with a massive (and still growing) world economy and population, the promise of averting acute climate change while protecting the Earth’s environment can be rightfully termed a neoliberal fantasy.

5. VANISHING NATURE — Urban land is expected to double or triple by 2050, causing further loss of wildlife. Hundreds of species will also be at increased risk from agricultural and industrial expansion during this timeframe. Since 1970, wildlife populations have suffered sharp declines throughout the world (see graph).

Wildlife population trends, 1970-2018.

Pollyannas: Better management of wildlife, land, and water will stem and reverse the biodiversity decline.

Scale Down Realists: Since when has that happened? If one needs a smoking gun to prove that human overgrowth has harshly degraded the biosphere, look no further than the global decline of wild animals and plants over the past half century. Apart from abundant documentation in scientific papers and reports, my wildlife biologist colleagues and I have agonizingly witnessed first hand the sorry effects of human encroachment on wildlife and nature across multiple countries.

A Plea for True Sustainability

Dear Pollyannas:

Please end your propaganda war against nature. Stop promising the extremely improbable: that, in three decades, after doubling the human economy, adding 1.6 billion more of us, and greatly expanding our energy consumption, we’ll triumphantly save the living world and a wholesome climate!

“...The miracle is not to walk on water or in thin air, but to walk on Earth. Walk in such a way that you become fully alive, and joy and happiness are possible. That is the miracle that everyone can perform....If you have mindfulness, concentration, and insight then every step you make on this Earth is performing a miracle.” — Thich Hat Hanh

Step up for a livable world!

In search of a future, the red wolf, a critically endangered animal. Photo: T Povilitis.

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